Market data

July construction spending fell 3.8% y/y and input costs held at 7.1% — double the 3.5% rise in bid prices — as backlog slipped to 8.0 months and September Fed-hike odds jumped toward 60%.

Diesel added 39.5¢ in two weeks, construction wages decoupled to +5.2% while the private sector cooled, and ground-up credit is the one CRE category still tightening; a September cut is now unpriced.

Contractor backlog broke to 8.0 months across every region and size, input costs held at 7.2% YoY, and the 30-year Treasury hit a 19-year high — data centers (+46%) alone are carrying demand.

Contractor backlog fell to an 8-month low and manufacturing construction is −21.4% YoY, even as tariffed-metal input costs rose 7.4%. A margin market, not a growth market.

A soft July jobs report drove the 10-year Treasury to 4.63% and a September cut back into play — even as construction spending fell 3.2% YoY and data-center delivery risk surfaced.

Backlog held near a multi-year high in June 2026 — but only if you pour data centers. For the other 87% of contractors, the pipeline is thinner and margins are the worry. A look at the split.