Dodge's 'Flat' August Momentum Index Hides an 18.9% Commercial Decline

Dodge's Momentum Index for August landed at 282.0 — down 0.4% from July's revised 283.0. Read as a single headline number, that's a nothing-burger: planning activity essentially held steady. Read one layer down, it's a different story. Commercial planning fell 3.0% for the month, and on a year-over-year basis, commercial activity excluding data centers is down 18.9%. The flat topline isn't stability. It's one segment covering for a decline in everything else.

The number nobody's reporting

The Momentum Index tracks projects entering planning — it's Dodge's leading indicator for what starts construction 12 to 18 months out, not what's happening on jobsites today. That makes the gap above more than an accounting curiosity: it's a preview. Overall planning activity is up 4.2% year-over-year and institutional planning is up a healthy 7.8%. But commercial planning — the segment most GCs and specialty contractors actually compete in — is up only 2.3% overall, and when you pull out data centers, what's left is down 18.9%. Dodge's own read on the month backs this directly: Sarah Martin, the network's Director of Economic Research, said "strength in planning momentum remained relatively broad-based in August, with weaker data center planning predominantly driving the flatter trend" — meaning even the data-center segment itself cooled sequentially, and it's still the only thing keeping the commercial number positive.

What actually entered planning in August

Three of the four largest projects to enter planning in August, each valued above $100 million, were data centers: an EdgeConneX facility in Bastrop, Texas at $462 million; a Bitdeer data center Phase 1 in Shalersville, Ohio at $378 million; and a data center in Secaucus, New Jersey at $358 million. The fourth was a $350 million sports resort in Stafford, Virginia. That's the mechanical reason the topline number holds up — a handful of very large, very specific projects doing the work that broad-based commercial demand used to do on its own.

The operator read

If your backlog isn't hyperscale-adjacent, "planning activity is up" headlines this fall are describing someone else's market, not yours. The national Momentum Index blends a small number of enormous data-center projects with everything else commercial contractors actually bid — office, retail, hospitality, light industrial — and right now that everything-else category is down almost a fifth year-over-year, not up. Before you read the next headline number as a signal to staff up or hold steady, it's worth pulling your own segment's planning and pipeline data separately from the blended one. The national average is telling you what data centers are doing. It's not telling you what your segment is doing — and this month, those two stories point in opposite directions.

Sources

1. Dodge Momentum Index: August 282.0, down 0.4% from July's revised 283.0; commercial planning down 3.0% month-over-month, institutional up 4.9%; year-over-year, overall DMI up 4.2%, commercial up 2.3%, institutional up 7.8%, and commercial excluding data centers down 18.9%; four largest August projects entering planning ($100M+) listed with values; quote from Sarah Martin, Director of Economic Research, Dodge Construction Network: Dodge Construction Network, 'Dodge Momentum Index Flat in August' (Sept. 8, 2026) — source